Broadway is holding seats by giving up yield
The Pulse · No. 01 · Week ending September 27, 2026
Broadway took $24.1M across 26 shows, down 11% on the week and 22% on the year. Two fewer shows explain part of the drop. The rest is mostly price: per show, attendance is down 4% on last year, while the average paid ticket fell 13%, to $115.17 from $131.79. The market is filling seats by giving up yield, and yield is what recoups a show.
Also this week in Unpacked: the recoupment math behind a 13% price cut.
The week
Total gross
$24.1M
WoW −11% (−7% same-show)
YoY −22%
Attendance
209,194
WoW −11%
YoY −10% (−4% per show)
Avg. paid ticket
$115.17
WoW flat
YoY −13%
Capacity · 26 shows
87.3%
from 95.0% last week
28 shows last year
The 25 shows that ran both weeks grossed 7% less than the week before; the rest of the drop is calendar (one show closed, one opened). Harry Potter's $607K jump flatters even that: the other 24 fell 10%, and 22 of the 25 were down. The softening is broad.
The number
Average paid ticket · week ending 9/27/26
Only one show cleared 100% capacity. Yield is where the spread is.
Hamilton
$244
Oh, Mary!
$204
MJ
$148
The Lion King
$135
Harry Potter
$130
Broadway average
$115
Buena Vista
$101
Two Strangers
$91
Wicked
$81
Stranger Things
$65
Cream: above the street average. Red: the average. Muted: below. Ten of the 26 shows price above the average; this is a selection around it.
The read for investors
01
October decides the spring.
House-wide capacity fell from 95% to 87% in a single week. The post-summer cliff arrived on schedule, and the discounting that starts now determines which spring openings recoup.
02
The most efficient asset on the street is a play.
Oh, Mary!: a $204 average in a 7,160-seat week at 99.8%. Small house, high yield, low nut. That is the model to underwrite, not the $25M musical.
03
IP is not pricing power.
Stranger Things carries a $65 average at 69% capacity in a 12,752-seat week. Brand gets people to look; it does not get them to pay full freight.
04
When Wicked softens, it is not a Wicked problem.
Down $293K and 13 points of capacity on the week. The market's most reliable title is a demand signal for the whole fall.
Hidden mechanic of the week
Capacity is the number the press prints. Gross potential is the number that pays you back.
Capacity
95%
seats filled
Yield ratio
37%
average paid ÷ top ticket
The Book of Mormon, same week: 95% of seats filled, and a $101 average against a $269 top ticket, 37 cents on the top-price dollar, a shade better than the street's 36. The seats are full; the revenue is not.
Every general manager tracks a show's gross potential: what the week would gross if every seat sold at full price. That number isn't in the public tables, which is why the public conversation is about capacity and the producer conversation is about yield. Recoupment is dollars against the weekly nut, not bodies against the house. The Pulse tracks a public proxy every week: the yield ratio, average paid ÷ top ticket.
Unpacked · No. 01 · Recoupment math, not gross
A 13% price cut can take 86% off a show's weekly profit.
This week's price move, run through an illustrative $20M musical: where each dollar of gross goes, what the cut does to recoupment and the four numbers to track instead of gross.
Disclosure
OFFSCRIPT is a producer or investor in seven of the 26 shows in this week's table: Buena Vista Social Club, Just in Time, Two Strangers, Operation Mincemeat, The Lost Boys, Maybe Happy Ending and Paranormal Activity. Observations on other productions are inferences from published League data, not reported facts.
Source: The Broadway League, via BroadwayWorld. Figures are gross box office for the week ending September 27, 2026. How every number here is computed: our methodology.
The Pulse is published every Tuesday. The weekly carousel is on Instagram at @offscript.theatricals.